NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
ON-CHAINDEFINITION
An on-chain metric that measures the aggregate paper profit or loss held by everyone who owns bitcoin, calculated from each coin's cost basis versus the current price. When NUPL turns negative, more coins are underwater than in profit.
NUPL is derived as (market cap − realized cap) ÷ market cap, where realized cap values every coin at the price it last moved rather than at today's price. A positive NUPL means the network as a whole is sitting on unrealized gains; a negative NUPL means it's sitting on unrealized losses. Analysts also track a long-term holder variant, LTH-NUPL, which isolates coins held 155+ days to filter out short-term noise.
Historically, NUPL readings above roughly 0.75 have coincided with euphoric tops, while readings below zero — the market underwater on average — have shown up during capitulation phases near past cycle lows, including 2015, 2018–19, and late 2022. A negative reading doesn't call a bottom by itself, but it's one of the more closely watched signs that a market has moved from complacency to genuine pain.
IN A SENTENCE
"Long-term holder NUPL just turned negative for the first time since 2022 — a reading that has clustered near past cycle bottoms."
Key facts
Common questions
Is NUPL the same for all holders, or just long-term holders?
Base NUPL covers the entire circulating supply. LTH-NUPL isolates coins held 155+ days (see long-term holder), filtering out short-term traders whose cost basis swings much faster.
How is NUPL different from MVRV?
MVRV is market cap divided by realized cap — a ratio. NUPL expresses the same relationship as a share of market cap instead, so an MVRV of 1 corresponds to a NUPL of 0. They move together; NUPL is just scaled to read like a percentage of the market's profit or loss.