Short-Term Holder Supply Hits Record Low — a Pattern Seen at Past Cycle Bottoms
Bitcoin's short-term holder supply has dropped to one of its lowest levels on record while long-term holder profitability turns negative, a combination Glassnode data ties to prior cycle bottoms rather than mid-downtrends.
BY DEREK CHU5 MIN READ
Short-term holder supply fell toward historic lows while long-term holder data resembled patterns seen near earlier Bitcoin cycle bottoms.
Fewer coins in the hands most likely to sell
Glassnode data shows bitcoin's short-term holder supply — coins held by wallets that acquired them within the last 155 days — has fallen to one of its lowest readings on record. That matters because short-term holders are the cohort most likely to panic-sell during volatility; a shrinking share of supply held by that group means fewer coins are sitting in hands prone to reactive selling, regardless of where price goes next.
Long-term holders are underwater — and that's the tell
At the same time, long-term holder profitability has turned negative, meaning a meaningful share of coins held for 155 days or more are now sitting at an unrealized loss. That combination — thin short-term holder supply plus long-term holders underwater — has historically shown up near major cycle bottoms rather than in the middle of a sustained downtrend, because it reflects a market where most of the sellers who were going to capitulate already have, leaving supply concentrated with holders who are both patient and less price-sensitive.
WHY IT MATTERS
This is a description of market structure, not a forecast. The same on-chain signature has preceded both sharp recoveries and extended sideways grinds in past cycles — its value is in showing that available sell-side supply is thinning, not in predicting when or if that translates into higher prices.
What to watch next
1.Whether short-term holder supply continues shrinking or starts rebuilding as new buyers enter at current prices.
2.Whether long-term holder profitability recovers above breakeven, which would remove one leg of the current signal.
3.Whether spot ETF flows and whale accumulation data continue pointing the same direction as this on-chain read.
Frequently asked questions
What is short-term holder supply?
The share of bitcoin's circulating supply held by wallets that acquired their coins within the last 155 days, a group analysts watch as a proxy for newer, more reactive market participants.
Why does low STH supply matter?
When short-term holder supply is low, it means fewer recently-acquired coins are available to be sold in a panic, since most of the supply has already consolidated into the hands of long-term holders who are statistically less likely to sell.
Does this data guarantee a bottom is in?
No. On-chain patterns describe conditions that have coincided with past bottoms, not a prediction. Confirmation typically comes only after price action follows through.
SOURCES & DATA
Education, not financial advice. See our editorial process and corrections policy.
Derek Chu
Bitcoin Almanack's editorial byline for on-chain data, holder behavior, exchange flows, network activity, and technical market structure.
Sources, standards & corrections
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Sources are linked inline. Read our editorial information, AI disclosure and corrections policy, or report an error.